Everyday the blogosphere offers an enormous amount of in-depth analysis on any imaginable topic. The world of macroeconomics and economic forecasting is no exception. To keep themselves updated on the latest information, our in-house team of economists scan the world wide web and gather what they consider the most interesting, appealing, informative or just curious blog posts from experts in the field of global economics. Here’s the list of the Top 4 posts from this week. Check it out!
- INOMICS blog – Lucía Leguízamo: ‘Global Job Market: Spanish Professionals Move to South America‘
INOMICS blog contributor, Lucía Leguízamo, writes an interesting analysis about immigration patterns in Spain and in Latin America within the context of the global financial crisis. According to Leguízamo, patterns in immigration around the world naturally ebb and flow with time. In South America however, the trend in recent decades has been distinctly for more individuals to take their leave of the continent than to move to it. But now in the context of the global economic crisis and the problems in the Euro zone, the migration patterns in this region are notably changing, and the destination of migrants is now shifting from well-known countries in the developed world to countries with emerging economies, especially in South America. – Ricardo Aceves
- Conversable Economist – Timothy Taylor: ‘A Fiscal Crisis: Top Concern for 2014?’
In a report by the World Economic Forum titled Global Risks 2014, members of this group reveal that their top concern for this year is “fiscal crises in key economies.” Timothy Taylor, managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, takes a quick look at the report and explains recent trends surrounding government debt with the help from a working paper from the IMF. One of the main points is that government debt ratios in emerging markets surged during the 1980s, but have been reduced by strong growth since then. In contrast, debt to GDP levels have been growing among advanced economies for several decades. These trends also hold true when measured more specifically by external debt. Moreover, while private sector debt levels have remained fairly stable in emerging countries in recent decades, private debt has grown over time in advanced countries. Taylor emphasizes that the figures show that the “size of debt in advanced countries relative to the size of their GDP is at historically high levels.” He points out that this does not necessarily mean their will be a crisis in the near future but suggests that governments in advanced countries should be proactive in reducing their indebtedness. – Carl Kelly
- Macro and Other Market Musings – David Beckworth: ‘The Fed’s Forward Guidance is Not Trully State Dependent’
This interesting article discusses the shape and adequacy of the current implementation of the Fed’s forward guidance monetary policy. David Beckworth makes the distinction between time dependent and state-of-the-economy dependent forward guidance. Based on this distinction, the author argues that the Fed has not been clear about which kind of forward guidance is putting in place, and thus criticizes the monetary authority for sending misguiding signals to the markets. Finally, Beckworth suggests that the idea of targeting real variables is also problematic, and thus widens the scope of its criticism to the Fed. – Enrique Jorge
- New Economic Perspectives – Robert E. Prasch: ‘The December Jobs Report: Disappointing But Not Surprising‘
Growth in payrolls disappointed in December as it only added 74,000 new jobs. The result also surprised market analysts, which had expected a much higher print. Robert E. Prasch argues that we should be disappointed, but not surprised by the recent performance of payrolls. Companies hire people when expected revenues expand at a faster pace than costs. Costs remain contained due to low salaries and an ultra-dovish monetary policy stance. So, the problem should lay on the revenues side (aggregate demand). Private consumption remains weak as households are deleveraging; the external side of the economy improved, but remains mired in the red; investment can not improve if exports and consumption do not follow suit; the government is reducing its deficit. The conclusion is that aggregate demand can not help support employment, so there is no reason to be surprised by December’s reading! – Ricard Torné
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