BLOG MASH-UP OF THE WEEK

Everyday the blogosphere offers an enormous amount of in-depth analysis on any imaginable topic. The world of macroeconomics and economic forecasting is no exception. To keep themselves updated on the latest information, our in-house team of economists scan the world wide web and gather what they consider the most interesting, appealing, informative or just curious blog posts from experts in the field of global economics. Here’s the list of the Top 4 posts from this week. Check it out!

  1. True Economics – Constantin Gurdgiev: External Debt Maturity Profile: Russia H1 2015-H1 2016

    Doctor Constantin Gurdgiev posted his recent research regarding Russia’s capital outflows data. According to Gurdgiev, the country’s external debt maturity profile shows Russian enterprises and banks (even those not covered by the sanctions) have effectively no access to dollar and euro funding in international markets, making it virtually impossible for them to roll maturing debts. Data show that between January 2015 and through June 2016,  the total amount of maturing external debt to be funded by Russian state, banks and enterprises is USD 139 billion. Moreover, Gurdgiev states that of this, just USD 4.0 billion is Government debt (or just 2.9% of the total maturing debt). That means there is no public debt sustainability issue in sight as the result of the sanctions no matter what debt ratings are issued to the sovereign. – Ricardo Aceves

  2. Economonitor – Edward Hugh: It’s Baaack: Looming Greek Elections Threaten To Re-ignite the Euro Crisis 

    In this blog post, Edward Hugh examines the looming Greek Elections and the impact they could have on the Eurozone. If the Greek Parliament cannot get enough votes to approve the government candidate on 29 December, then general elections would be called. The danger to the Eurozone lies in that if elections are held there is a chance that the radical coalition – Syriza – may win, which would could result in a confrontation with the EU Commission. Although Syriza does not advocate leaving the EU, their policies would conflict with the EU mandate, including higher salaries and larger government. Hugh concludes by stating that the common currency experiment made it very easy to get into trouble (low interest, good credit ratings), however it makes it very difficult for Greece to get out (can’t devalue currency). – Angela Bouzanis

  3. GrowthEcon – Dietz Vollrath: You’ve Got Potential

    In one of his latest posts, Dietz Vollrath talks about potential GDP, a term which comes up a lot in economics as policy discussion depends on how far GDP is “below potential”. Vollrath gives more insights on the concept and differentiates it from what he calls “potential potential GDP”. “Potential GDP” is our non-recessionary level of GDP, but it’s not the best we can do. It is just the typical level of GDP a country has been achieving historically. On the other hand, “potential potential GDP” is the best level of GDP a country can reach given its current level of technology. It is the GDP level we could have if we eliminated market inefficiencies like information issues, collusion, regulatory capture, rent-seeking, and externalities. – Dirina Mançellari

  4. Money and Banking – Cecchetti & Schoenholtz: Higher capital requirements didn’t slow the economy

    Cecchetti & Schoenholtz join in on the debate about whether implementing higher capital requirements is bad for long-run growth and economic recovery after a period of recession. Despite concerns from the private sector, the authors’ analysis of recent studies leads them to support the conclusion that forcing banks to increase their capitalization does not drive up interest margins or reduce credit volumes.  – Carl Kelly

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